{"title":"Responses of Australian Importers to the 2018-2019 US-China Trade War: Decoupling From China?","authors":"Nobuaki Yamashita, Shiro Armstrong","doi":"10.1002/app5.70078","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>Using comprehensive trade transaction and firm-level data from 2015 to 2023, we examine how Australian firms adjusted import patterns following the US-China trade war. Our method compares firms with high versus low exposure to products subject to Trump tariffs in 2018–2019, measured by their pre-war import patterns. We find that highly exposed Australian firms increased their import dependency on Chinese goods in subsequent years. This suggests the US-China trade war paradoxically reinforced rather than reduced Australiaʼs reliance on Chinese imports, contrary to the expectations of supply chain diversification amid deteriorating geopolitics. A trade war unleashed by the Trump administration, intended, in part, to diminish Chinaʼs global trade position and encourage US allies to diversify their economic relationships away from China, may have had the paradoxical and unintentional effect of deepening Australiaʼs reliance on Chinese imports.</p>","PeriodicalId":45839,"journal":{"name":"Asia & the Pacific Policy Studies","volume":"13 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8000,"publicationDate":"2026-02-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/app5.70078","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Asia & the Pacific Policy Studies","FirstCategoryId":"90","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/app5.70078","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"AREA STUDIES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Using comprehensive trade transaction and firm-level data from 2015 to 2023, we examine how Australian firms adjusted import patterns following the US-China trade war. Our method compares firms with high versus low exposure to products subject to Trump tariffs in 2018–2019, measured by their pre-war import patterns. We find that highly exposed Australian firms increased their import dependency on Chinese goods in subsequent years. This suggests the US-China trade war paradoxically reinforced rather than reduced Australiaʼs reliance on Chinese imports, contrary to the expectations of supply chain diversification amid deteriorating geopolitics. A trade war unleashed by the Trump administration, intended, in part, to diminish Chinaʼs global trade position and encourage US allies to diversify their economic relationships away from China, may have had the paradoxical and unintentional effect of deepening Australiaʼs reliance on Chinese imports.
期刊介绍：
Asia & the Pacific Policy Studies is the flagship journal of the Crawford School of Public Policy at The Australian National University. It is a peer-reviewed journal that targets research in policy studies in Australia, Asia and the Pacific, across a discipline focus that includes economics, political science, governance, development and the environment. Specific themes of recent interest include health and education, aid, migration, inequality, poverty reduction, energy, climate and the environment, food policy, public administration, the role of the private sector in public policy, trade, foreign policy, natural resource management and development policy. Papers on a range of topics that speak to various disciplines, the region and policy makers are encouraged. The goal of the journal is to break down barriers across disciplines, and generate policy impact. Submissions will be reviewed on the basis of content, policy relevance and readability.
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