An investigation into the impact of mobile money transactions on economic growth in Zambia

IF 1.4 3区经济学 Q2 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

Development Policy Review Pub Date : 2026-03-17 DOI:10.1111/dpr.70062

Kaliye Kawina, Mubanga Mpundu

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Motivation

The study investigates the impact of mobile money on Zambia's economic growth, noting its widespread use in sub-Saharan Africa. It seeks to clarify whether mobile money directly influences gross domestic product (GDP) or whether other factors are more significant.

Purpose

This study investigates how mobile money payments affect Zambia's GDP growth from 2012 to 2024, including key macroeconomic variables for a comprehensive view.

Approach and Methods

It uses a quantitative time-series approach with annual data from 2012 to 2024 (N = 13 observations) sourced from the World Bank World Development Indicators (World Bank, n.d.) and Bank of Zambia Payment Systems Statistics. Analysis was conducted using Stata software employing Prais–Winsten regression to address autocorrelation in the small-N dataset.

Findings

The findings show that mobile money payments, despite increasing use, had no impact on GDP growth. Direct credits supported growth by aiding investment and business, whereas direct debits hurt growth, probably due to lower disposable income or money leaving the economy. Inflation hampers growth by reducing purchasing power and investment. The labour-force participation rate also negatively affects GDP, indicating challenges in Zambia's labour market. These results, while robust to diagnostic tests, are interpreted cautiously due to the implications for statistical power of the small sample size.

Policy Implications

The findings emphasize the need for policies to promote mobile money payments, improve credit systems, and curb inflation. For mobile money to foster growth, its expansion requires institutional, regulatory, and infrastructure development.

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调查移动货币交易对赞比亚经济增长的影响

这项研究调查了移动货币对赞比亚经济增长的影响，并指出移动货币在撒哈拉以南非洲地区的广泛使用。它试图澄清移动货币是否直接影响国内生产总值（GDP），还是其他因素更为重要。本研究探讨了移动支付如何影响赞比亚2012年至2024年的GDP增长，包括关键的宏观经济变量，以获得一个全面的观点。方法和方法采用定量时间序列方法，采用2012年至2024年的年度数据（N = 13个观测值），数据来源为世界银行世界发展指标（World Bank, n.d.）和赞比亚银行支付系统统计。使用Stata软件进行分析，采用Prais-Winsten回归来解决小n数据集的自相关问题。研究结果表明，尽管移动支付的使用越来越多，但对GDP增长没有影响。直接信贷通过帮助投资和商业来支持经济增长，而直接借贷则会损害经济增长，这可能是由于可支配收入减少或资金流出所致。通货膨胀降低了购买力和投资，从而阻碍了经济增长。劳动力参与率也对GDP产生负面影响，表明赞比亚劳动力市场面临挑战。这些结果虽然对诊断测试是可靠的，但由于小样本量对统计能力的影响，解释起来很谨慎。研究结果强调需要制定促进移动支付、改善信用体系和抑制通货膨胀的政策。为了促进移动支付的增长，它的扩张需要制度、监管和基础设施的发展。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Development Policy Review DEVELOPMENT STUDIES-

CiteScore

3.50

自引率

5.90%

发文量

期刊介绍： Development Policy Review is the refereed journal that makes the crucial links between research and policy in international development. Edited by staff of the Overseas Development Institute, the London-based think-tank on international development and humanitarian issues, it publishes single articles and theme issues on topics at the forefront of current development policy debate. Coverage includes the latest thinking and research on poverty-reduction strategies, inequality and social exclusion, property rights and sustainable livelihoods, globalisation in trade and finance, and the reform of global governance. Informed, rigorous, multi-disciplinary and up-to-the-minute, DPR is an indispensable tool for development researchers and practitioners alike.