Sectoral Adaptation and Strategic Resilience: The Impact of Sanctions on Russian Corporate Performance (2014–2021)

Abstract

We examine the sectoral impact of Western sanctions on Russian corporate performance from 2014 to 2021 using a panel of listed nonfinancial firms. Applying continuous-time heterogeneous treatment models and difference-in-differences estimators, we document persistent divergence across sectors: The energy sector exhibits sustained underperformance, whereas materials and utilities display relative resilience. Notably, state or strategic designation does not consistently shield firms from adverse outcomes. Our findings conceptualise sanctions as structural stress tests that expose institutional asymmetries and adaptive capacities, offering new empirical insights into the long-term economic consequences of geopolitical constraints.