Divergent Position Taking Under Uncertainty With an Application to Chile's 2021–2022 Constituent Convention

IF 2.4 3区社会学 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Legislative Studies Quarterly Pub Date : 2026-03-06 DOI:10.1111/lsq.70053

Jorge Fabrega, John Londregan

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Sometimes politicians must take indelible public stances under unresolved uncertainty about an outcome they cannot control, for example, consider the minority on a proposal that is bound to pass. Counter to the expectations that party platforms converge, and that rational individuals balk at betting against one another, we show this can lead office motivated politicians with shared beliefs and policy preferences to adopt divergent positions. To illustrate the workings of our model, and to provide guidance on discerning whether it applies in a given situation, we apply it in the context of Chile's Constituent Assembly of $2021 / 2022$ .

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不确定性下的分歧立场及其对智利2021-2022年制宪会议的应用

有时，政客们必须在一个他们无法控制的结果未得到解决的不确定性下，采取不可磨灭的公开立场，例如，在一项肯定会通过的提案上考虑少数派的意见。与党派纲领趋同的预期相反，理性的个人不愿相互对赌，我们表明，这可能导致具有共同信念和政策偏好的办公室动机的政治家采取不同的立场。为了说明我们的模型的工作原理，并为辨别该模型是否适用于特定情况提供指导，我们将其应用于智利2021/2022年制宪会议的背景下。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Legislative Studies Quarterly POLITICAL SCIENCE-

CiteScore

2.60

自引率

13.30%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Legislative Studies Quarterly is an international journal devoted to the publication of research on representative assemblies. Its purpose is to disseminate scholarly work on parliaments and legislatures, their relations to other political institutions, their functions in the political system, and the activities of their members both within the institution and outside. Contributions are invited from scholars in all countries. The pages of the Quarterly are open to all research approaches consistent with the normal canons of scholarship, and to work on representative assemblies in all settings and all time periods. The aim of the journal is to contribute to the formulation and verification of general theories about legislative systems, processes, and behavior.