Region-specific solutions for clean cooking and heating in rural China: a cost–benefit analysis

Abstract

Background

Pervasive use of unclean solid fuels is impeding the transition to sustainable household energy by 2030 in many low-income and middle-income countries. The coal to gas or electricity policy in rural north China effectively reduced wintertime air pollution; however, this roadmap was challenged in the nationwide clean heating renovation due to unaffordability and reliable energy supply, rendering it unsustainable.

Methods

This study developed a new, multi-pronged framework for clean cooking and heating in rural China, including both long-term and short-term heating regions, relying primarily on affordable electrification with supplemental biofuel pellets. We performed cost–benefit analysis of this cleaning approach following the cause–effect chain from changes in pollutant emissions, indoor and outdoor air quality, and monetised health outcomes.

Findings

Under the investment cap for power grid renovation below ¥8000 per household (scenario H3), three-quarters of the population in the long-term heating region (ie, one-third of the national total rural population), could switch to electric heating. For the remaining households, affordable biofuel pellets can be adopted for heating (scenario H9). This transition would deliver notable benefits in reducing national residential primary PM_2·5 emissions by 65% (IQR 61–70) from the 724 Gg (612–967) in baseline H0 to 256 Gg (205–312) in H9, lowering exposure to PM_2·5 by 20% (16–25) from 50·2 μg/m³ (40·4–63·5) in H0 to 40·4 μg/m³ (33·1–50·2) in H9, and consequently averting 51 190 (37 480–66 990) premature deaths, with the estimated monetised health benefits being nearly 2·55 (1·43–4·40) times the cost. Meanwhile, clean cooking transition for the whole rural population (scenario C2) would avert 78 740 (56 240–103 390) premature deaths, with the benefit–cost ratio of 7·70 (4·17–14·70). Combining clean cooking and heating would yield more substantial effects across the country. Costs and health benefits exhibit spatial variability and differ across age groups.

Interpretation

The proposed pragmatic household clean energy framework would benefit over 1 million rural residents in China who still rely on traditional solid fuels to meet basic energy needs, with the monetised health benefits notably higher than the associated cost.

Funding

National Natural Science Foundation of China and Ministry of Education of the People's Republic of China.