Juveniles and where to find them: a basin-scale habitat model for the lost years of loggerhead sea turtles in the North Atlantic.

Abstract

Background: Juvenile loggerhead sea turtles represent a crucial but understudied stage of the species life cycle. Most studies have been conducted at regional scales and there remains a need for a broader scale synthesis. In the North Atlantic, loggerheads encounter numerous threats such as fishing during their transoceanic journey, so it is important to get a broad view of their distribution, movement and habitat preferences.

Methods: For this study, we gathered tracking data from 124 juvenile loggerheads tagged along the Azores, Canary Islands, Madeira and in the western North Atlantic to develop a habitat model for the entire basin. We used a SSM to interpolate tracks to daily positions, simulated pseudo-absences with a correlated random walk for background data, and explored 17 environmental variables using boosted regression trees to select the best model in terms of biological realism and predictive power. The best model obtained (AUC = 0.988) was then used to predict habitat suitability for the North Atlantic for the period 1998-2022. Stranding records of loggerheads in France, UK and Ireland were used to discuss the predictions.

Results: After filtering, tracks of 105 individuals, covering most of the basin, were used in the model. Our predictions of habitat suitability show the importance of the Gulf Stream and the Azorean Current. Habitat suitability is predicted to be higher in the area between 30° and 45°N all year round, while open waters below 30°N, including Cape Verde, are not predicted to be a suitable habitat. In northern and eastern areas, like the Bay of Biscay and UK and Irish waters, habitat suitability varied seasonally, with colder seasons showing lower values. Accordingly, strandings in those areas occurred mostly during winter (December-February; 45.1%) and spring (March-May; 34.1%).

Conclusions: The model offers a first basin-scale prediction of the seasonal distribution of juvenile loggerheads in the North-Atlantic, which shows consistency with stranding and bycatch data in the basin. This study represents a first step towards a broader scale understanding of juveniles' habitat preferences that can be used to quantify the magnitude and extent of the threats that they face.