[Levels and Influencing Factors of the County's Agricultural Net Carbon Sink in Jiangsu Coastal].

Abstract

Emission reduction and remittance enhancement in the agricultural sector are crucial to achieving the dual-carbon goal. Taking the Jiangsu Coastal Economic Belt (JCEB) as the research object, the carbon emission coefficient method and the parameter estimation method are adopted to measure the total carbon emission, carbon sink, and net carbon sink (NCS) of the 20 districts and counties from 2005 to 2023 in JCEB. On this basis, the study further analyzes spatial-temporal characteristics and dynamic evolution trends. The spatio-temporal geographically weighted regression model (GTWR) is used to explore the spatio-temporal heterogeneity and evolutionary pattern of each influencing factor. The results showed that: ① The agricultural NCS (measured by C) in JCEB decreased from 3.12×10⁶ t in 2005 to 1.32×10⁶ t in 2023, showing an overall trend of fluctuating decline. Spatially, the total NCS showed a distribution pattern of "high in the center and low in the north and south, " with most areas being low-carbon surplus areas. ② Among the influencing factors, the intensity of financial support for agriculture (FSA), the grain to economy crop ratio (GER), and agricultural development levels (ADL) had positive driving effects on the agricultural NCS. The positive effects of the first two factors continued to strengthen, while the contribution of the latter showed a "U"-shaped change trend. Fertilizer application intensity (FAI), agricultural machinery use intensity (AMI), and rural residents' income level (RRI) generally inhibited the growth of the agricultural NCS. The inhibitory effects of the first two factors were declining, while the negative effect of the latter decreased with economic growth. ③ The impact direction and intensity of each driving factor on the agricultural NCS in different counties showed significant differences. The impact effects of FSA and FAI were distinctly different in the north and south. The impact effects of GER and ADL showed agglomeration characteristics at the municipal level. In contrast, the influence intensity of AMI and RRI on the agricultural NCS presented an overall pattern of interlaced distribution in the north and south.