[Analysis of Carbon Emission Impact Factors and Peak Scenario Simulation for Resource-based Cities in China Based on RF-RFECV Feature Selection and BO-CNN-BiLSTM-attention].

Abstract

As China's 2030 carbon peak target approaches, carbon emission reduction efforts have become increasingly urgent and crucial. Resource-based cities, characterized by their reliance on high-carbon industries, play a pivotal role in the nation's carbon peak progress. This study focuses on 108 resource-based cities from 2000 to 2022, employing the RF-RFECV algorithm to identify key factors influencing carbon emissions in these cities and utilizing the SHAP algorithm to evaluate feature importance. Furthermore, a BO-CNN-BiLSTM-attention prediction model is constructed, combined with scenario analysis to simulate the dynamic pathways of carbon peaking in resource-based cities under low-carbon, baseline, and high-speed scenarios. The results indicate the following: ① From the perspective of influencing factors, energy consumption was the most critical driver of carbon emissions in resource-based cities, reflecting their dependence on energy-intensive industries. The GDP of the primary industry and population density had a negative impact on carbon emissions, while the other six variables exerted a positive influence. ② In terms of city types, the impact of energy consumption on regenerative cities gradually declined, the development of secondary industries varied in its influence across different city types, and urbanization levels had the most significant impact on growing resource-based cities. ③ According to the peak scenario simulations, under the baseline and high-speed scenarios, carbon emissions in resource-based cities will continue to rise before 2040, whereas under the low-carbon scenario, emissions are projected to peak by 2034. Based on these findings, resource-based cities should achieve low-carbon transformation and sustainable development by improving energy efficiency, developing renewable energy, advancing green finance, adjusting industrial structures, and establishing carbon emission trading markets.