Levelized cost pass-through of green hydrogen in the bioethanol fuel value chain in U.S. Midwest

Abstract

This study provides an integrated levelized cost pass-through analysis of the green hydrogen–green ammonia–corn–ethanol value chain, combining techno-economic modeling, environmental impact assessment, and federal tax credit incentives (Inflation Reduction Act, 45V and 45Q) into a unified analytical framework within the U.S. Midwest corn and ethanol supply chain. We determine that the levelized cost of green hydrogen ranges from $2.79/kg to $5.39/kg — depending on the availability of a $3/kg 45V tax credit — compared to $1.49–$2.18/kg for conventional hydrogen produced via steam methane reforming. These differences propagate downstream, resulting in green ammonia costs of $0.65/kg with the tax credit and $1.16/kg without, relative to a conventional cost range of $0.39–$0.59/kg. Consequently, corn production costs increase by $0.11 to $0.35 per bushel, which in turn raises the ethanol break-even price by $0.04–$0.12 per gallon. Despite these cost increases, green ammonia offers substantial environmental benefits, achieving up to a 96% reduction in lifecycle

emissions compared to conventional ammonia and lowering emissions from corn production and ethanol generation by 33% and 9.1%, respectively. Our in-depth analysis illuminates the complex trade-offs between higher input costs and environmental benefits, providing a robust assessment of the long-term viability of green fertilizer inputs in the agricultural and biofuel sectors.