Multidimensional Risks and the cleaner production-oriented trade transformation in the China–ASEAN

Abstract

The transformation toward cleaner production-oriented trade (CPOTT) is increasingly influenced by macro-level uncertainties, however, the mechanisms linking risk exposure to green trade upgrading remain unclear. This study examines how political, economic, social, and technological risks affect CPOTT in the China–ASEAN region, and how these effects are conditioned by policy coordination and technological adaptation. Using panel data for eleven countries from 2002 to 2022, we combine fixed-effects regressions and Cox proportional hazards models to identify both static and time-dependent dynamics. The results show that political, economic, and technological risks accelerate CPOTT, indicating a risk-induced adaptation mechanism in which external volatility prompts institutional reform and comparative advantage reallocation. Social risk, however, constrains transformation by weakening absorptive capacity. Policy coordination stabilizes expectations but weakens risk-induced reform incentives, while technological adaptation strengthens resilience only when embedded within institutional frameworks. These findings demonstrate that the effects of risk on green trade are conditional and context-dependent. This study contributes to a risk–resilience–transformation perspective and highlights that sustainable trade upgrading requires institutional architectures that preserve reform incentives under uncertainty and strengthen cross-border innovation spillovers.