Identifying evaluation indicators for sustainable urban transportation in the era of autonomous vehicles: A combined approach of importance-performance analysis and Kano three-factor theory model

Abstract

As the sustainability impacts of autonomous vehicles (AVs) on urban environments remain unexplored, this study proposes a three-stage framework to identify key indicators for sustainable urban transportation (SUT) in the context of AVs. The first stage involves conducting a literature review to derive a set of candidate indicators which encompass economic, social, and environmental dimensions. In the second stage, Importance-Performance Analysis (IPA) is employed to classify these indicators into four quadrants, based on their current performance in existing transportation systems and their significance for SUT in an AVs-incorporated future. In the third stage, Kano’s three-factor theory is utilized to enhance the robustness of the evaluation by identifying and classifying indicators with high importance for AVs, accounting for their performance in a non-linear and asymmetric manner. Ultimately, the study develops a set of 15 indicators—Sustainable Urban Transportation: Economic, Social, and Environmental Indicators for AVs (SUTESEI-AVs)—to evaluate the impacts of AVs on SUT and provide a foundation for scientifically grounded transportation policy recommendations. The results support evidence-based policy development for integrating AVs into urban systems, while also facilitating global benchmarking and fostering collaboration among cities to address the challenges and opportunities of AV deployment.