Bridging China's energy and mineral system: Evaluating the risk of domestic supply shortages for critical raw materials in the context of China's energy transition

Abstract

Achieving the goal of “net zero emissions” requires accelerating the transformation of the energy system to more clean, green and low-carbon, which means shifting from a fossil fuel-intensive traditional energy system to a material-intensive renewable energy system. In this transition, it is important to quantify the demand for critical minerals/raw materials as well as the domestic supply. This paper combined dynamic material flow analysis methods and Hubbert-peak model to identify possible bottlenecks and supply shortage risks between future demand and geological availability of critical raw materials in the period 2021-2060 driven by China's “carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals”. Evaluating 22 critical minerals across 16 technology scenarios, we identify: 12 materials at extremely high risk of domestic supply shortage (cumulative demand > reserves by 2050): Ag, Al, Cr, Cu, Ni, Cd, In, Se, Te, Li, Co, Pt; 3 at high risk (cumulative demand > reserves by 2060): Fe, Ge, Dy; 2 at medium risk (annual demand > production capacity): Mn, Ga. Recycling reduces risks for Al, Fe, Mn, Li, Dy, and Ge (down to medium or low risks), but cannot resolve deficits for Cr, Co, Pt, and scattered metals (Cd, Se, In, Te). Electric vehicles emerge as the technology with the largest variety of required materials, reliant on 17/22 minerals (notably Li, Co, Ni for batteries), 13 of which are classified as extremely high or high-risk minerals. This study provides a methodological framework to assess mineral supply risks, supporting China's energy transition security and global critical mineral supply chain stability.