Roles of socioeconomic development and water quantity–quality dynamics in shaping water resources value in China

Abstract

Water resources value (WRV) provides a critical foundation for water pricing, water rights trading, and sustainable allocation. Present WRV valuation studies mainly emphasize economic indices and often overlook the roles of both water quantity and water quality in shaping value over time. In addition, few studies focus on long-term, national-scale evaluations displaying provincial differences in water scarcity and usability. To address these gaps, this study develops an improved present earning value (PEV) framework that explicitly integrates dynamic water quantity– and water quality–related indices to derive a comprehensive water resources value (CWRV). Using provincial data over China from 2000 to 2020, the spatial–temporal evolution of unit CWRV (CWRV_u) and its key drivers are systematically examined. Results show that China's national CWRV_u increased from 0.30 CNY/m³ in 2000 to 1.51 CNY/m³ in 2020, driven primarily by sustained socioeconomic growth and significant improvements in water quality, while interannual fluctuations in water quantity occasionally suppressed CWRV_u. Large spatial disparities persist: North China consistently exhibits the highest CWRV_u due to severe water scarcity and strong economic demand, whereas Southwest China —despite rapid growth—remains among the lowest because of abundant water endowments. The roles of influencing factors vary regionally: socioeconomic development and water scarcity dominate value formation, whereas improvements in water quality exert a positive but gradual and cumulative influence. These findings highlight the necessity of jointly considering natural and socioeconomic attributes in WRV assessments and provide evidence-based support for advancing water rights markets and sustainable water management in China.