Balancing land planning priorities for ecological conservation and renewable energy development through multi-objective land planning in China

Abstract

Balancing ecological conservation with renewable energy development is a critical challenge in China, where the rapid expansion of renewable energy is indispensable for achieving carbon neutrality but increasingly intensifies conflicts with conservation. To balance these conflicts, we developed a multi-objective land planning framework that integrates high-resolution spatial data on biodiversity, ecosystem services, vulnerable carbon stocks, and renewable energy potentials. Within this framework, we implemented three land-use scenarios representing distinct policy preferences—Conservation-First, Energy-First, and Multi-Zones (equal weighting of conservation and energy objectives)—to allocate land optimally and quantify the trade-offs between ecological conservation and renewable energy development. Our results revealed that without ecological safeguards, renewable energy expansion would place more than 2 million km² of land at risk and expose 901.31 Gt of vulnerable carbon, while also threatening the nation's highly irreplaceable species habitats—which, although covering only about 80 km², are extremely sensitive to land-use change. In contrast, the Multi-Zones scenario reduces carbon exposure by ∼30 Gt, safeguards 10% more critical habitats, and preserves nearly 90% (642.5 GW) of national objective of renewable energy. The trade-offs induced by wind and solar energy are concentrated in northern and eastern Inner Mongolia and southern Xizang provinces, while hydropower-related trade-offs occur mainly in the highly elevated regions of Yunnan province, highlighting areas where adaptive conservation strategies and conflict-sensitive energy planning are most needed. Based on these findings, we proposed region-specific strategies to guide policies that align China's dual carbon commitments with Ecological Conservation Redline and support the achievement of SDG 7 and SDG 15.