The heterogeneous effects of large and small minimum wage changes on hours worked: Evidence using a partially pre-committed analysis plan

Abstract

We use a partially pre-committed estimation strategy to study the effects of minimum wage increases on hours worked. Analyzing CPS and ACS data from 2011–2019, we estimate that relatively large minimum wage increases reduced usual hours worked per week among individuals with low levels of experience and education by just under one hour per week during the decade prior to the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, while the effects of smaller minimum wage increases are economically and statistically indistinguishable from zero. Because we follow the same pre-committed analysis plan as Clemens and Strain’s (forthcoming) analysis of employment, we can directly compare the resulting employment and hours elasticities. We find that these elasticities were very similar in our empirical context.