Monetary tightening and the art-market speculative premium: evidence from a contemporary–19th century spread

Abstract

This note examines how U.S. monetary policy surprises reshape relative pricing across art-market segments. Using Artprice hedonic indices, I define a speculative premium as the return differential between Contemporary and 19th Century art. Local projections show that contractionary surprises compress this premium over the subsequent quarters (h = 0 denotes the next quarter). The effect is robust to equity-market adjustment. Point estimates are larger for tightening than easing surprises, but asymmetry tests are imprecise at some horizons. I discuss economic magnitude, timing in an illiquid auction market, and data limitations stemming from the absence of unsold lots.