Assessing the impact of industrial areas on land surface temperature: A comparison with urban and green spaces in the context of global warming

Abstract

This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the urban heat island (UHI) effect and land surface temperature (LST) variations across Lahore, Pakistan, focusing on industrial, residential, and green spaces. Within the broader UHI framework, the study foregrounds the intra-urban heat island (IHI) phenomenon, which captures fine-scale thermal contrasts among industrial, residential, and green spaces. This perspective helps show how industrial growth creates localized hotspots in the urban environment. Using Landsat imagery, the split-window algorithm, and vegetation and built-up indices, the study tracks LST trends over 24 years (2000–2024). A comparative analysis of supervised classification algorithms and Otsu thresholding with K-means clustering was conducted to assess vegetation distribution, demonstrating the value of combining automated and supervised methods for improved land-cover assessment. Results reveal a clear industrial thermal footprint following the establishment of the industrial estate in 2007, with peak summer LST reaching 43.2 $°C$ at the core and declining to 41.6 $°C$ within a 5 km radius. A maximum temperature contrast ($\Delta T_{max}$) of 3 $°C$ confirms localized heat accumulation. Residential areas show persistent warming, whereas green spaces consistently maintain the lowest LST. Vegetation loss is associated with an increase in LST of up to 4.6 $°C$, underscoring the cooling role of green infrastructure. Despite peak rainfall of 905 mm in 2021, IA temperatures remained high, indicating that impervious surfaces limit precipitation-driven cooling. The study offers long-term empirical insight but is constrained by Landsat’s spatial resolution and the absence of socioeconomic or atmospheric pollution variables, which future work should integrate for a more holistic assessment. The study advocates for targeted nature-based interventions to reduce heat stress and enhance urban resilience.