Future land use intensifies trade-offs between development and conservation in the Yellow River Basin's critical ecological areas

Abstract

Critical Ecological Areas (CEAs) are essential for sustaining ecosystem health, yet systematic projections of their future dynamics remain limited. This knowledge gap constrains effective measures for protecting and enhancing existing ecological functions. Furthermore, current scenario analyses often fail to integrate ecological and economic objectives comprehensively. To address these gaps, this study employs the Ecosystem Multifunctionality–Stability–Integrity (MSI) framework to assess future CEA dynamics under four land use scenarios projected for 2030 and 2050: Historical Baseline (HIS), Economic Priority (EN), Ecological Priority (EL), and Ecological-Economic Coordination (EE). Taking the Yellow River Basin (YRB) as a case study, our results indicate continued expansion of construction land across all scenarios, intensifying trade-offs between ecological and economic land uses. Land use change reshapes the spatiotemporal patterns and functional traits of CEAs by altering ecosystem multifunctionality (EMI), stability (ESI), and integrity (EII). CEAs are predominantly located in Sanjiangyuan, Huanglong, Qinling, and Lüliang Mountains. The EL scenario yields the most favorable outcomes, preserving the largest extent of CEA retained regions (CRRs) and the smallest risk areas, with CRRs surpassing those under the EN scenario by 1.5% by 2050. While expansion of ecological land (e.g., forest, grassland, wetland) partially offsets the adverse effects of construction land on EMI and ESI, the EE scenario demonstrates that merely increasing ecological land cannot counteract the negative impacts of rapid economic land growth on EII, underscoring persistent conflicts between conservation and development. Risk areas exhibit below-average levels of ESI and EII, with values 8.06–26.64% and 16.10–23.97% lower than CEA averages, respectively. Based on these findings, we propose differentiated governance strategies for the YRB at both near–long term and regional–basin scales. This study advances the understanding of how land use change shapes CEAs and provides insights for balancing ecological risk prevention and sustainable development in vulnerable river basins.