New methods for the assessment and prediction of vector-borne infectious diseases

Abstract

This study, which demonstrates that the single-population Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model is also applicable to the assessment and prediction of vector-borne infectious disease outbreaks, provides a reliable model tool for the future prevention and control of vector-borne unknown (X) epidemics. One of the key contributions is the identification of a suitable interpretation of the model parameters. The EpiSIX prediction system, via application of a single SEIR model, was used to fit and analyse the 2025 Foshan City chikungunya fever epidemic data and the 2024–2025 dengue fever epidemics data from Guangdong Province. The results showed that the average serial interval of both fevers was approximately 11 days. The estimated basic reproduction number (R₀) was around 6.0 for the chikungunya fever epidemic in Foshan City and approximately 4.0 and 3.0 for the 2024 and 2025 dengue fever epidemics in Guangdong Province, respectively. An additional prediction of the development trend of the ongoing 2025 dengue fever epidemic in Guangdong Province indicated that the final number of infections would range between 3400 and 6000 cases. Finally, a comparison between the uncontrolled developments of the omicron epidemic (with an average serial interval of 4 days) and the chikungunya fever epidemic (with an average serial interval of 11 days, 2.75 times that of omicron) under the same R₀ value (5.60) showed that the omicron epidemic would last for 50 days, while the chikungunya fever epidemic would persist for 120 days. Theoretically, the pressure of the former on medical resources would be 2.5 times that of the latter.