Car, bus, or metro? Evaluating mode shift dynamics through the introduction of mass rapid transit in an emerging city

Abstract

An efficient public transit (PT) system is essential to handling commuters' transportation demands. Yet, many growing cities' PT fails to meet commuters’ expectations and cannot capture riders. Dhaka faced similar issues, with buses offering inferior service, which was further worsened by congestion. To address this, the city introduced its first Mass Rapid Transit (MRT), intending to attract private vehicle (PV) users. However, it primarily shifted bus riders and failed to reduce PV dependency, motivating this study. A home interview survey collected data from 1513 commuters at four MRT stations, representing diverse land uses, focusing on their travel behavior, perceptions of transit services, and socio-economic characteristics. Factor analysis, Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes (MIMIC), and Discrete Choice Models were used to understand the heterogeneity of prior PT and PV users in their decision-making processes. Demographic and household characteristics significantly influenced mobility shifts, with Rapid-Pass ownership being the key factor, increasing likelihood of prior PT users changing by 15.31 times and prior PV users by 2.60. Social media influences decision-making, especially among females. The study explored how global inflation concerns affect users' mobility decisions, focusing on their trade-offs between time and money. The study also found that parallel alignment of MRT and bus induces unwanted competition between PT modes and causes buses to lose ridership. However, when destinations were within comfortable walking distance from MRT stations, PT and PV users strongly preferred MRT. Overall, the study provides policymakers with insights into balancing PT and PV use to build an efficient urban transport network.