Integrating system dynamics modeling and EnergyPLAN for national energy planning: The case of Georgia

Abstract

Transitioning to sustainable and resilient energy systems is a key challenge for countries with rising demand, climate vulnerabilities, and geopolitical constraints. In Georgia, substantial renewable energy (RE) potential, growing emissions, and seasonal reliance on energy imports highlight the need for diversified, low-carbon planning. This study models Georgia's long-term generation capacity expansion to 2050 under alternative scenarios using a soft-linked hybrid modeling framework that couples system dynamics (SD) with EnergyPLAN. The SD model captures long-term investment dynamics, learning effects, and policy-driven transitions, while EnergyPLAN evaluates the operational feasibility of resulting system configurations under hourly constraints. Results indicate that variable renewable energy (VRE) can satisfy domestic demand and reduce annual net electricity imports if supported by timely transmission and grid investments. The installed capacity of wind and utility-scale solar energy can reach up to 2.5 GW by 2050, while net imports can decrease from 3.3 TWh to below 1.5 TWh, and power sector emissions can be halved relative to 2023 levels. Hydropower remains central, expanding to 5.3 GW in high-renewable scenarios, though seasonal deficits persist. Methodologically, the study contributes by demonstrating the value of integrating long-term SD-based scenario exploration with high-resolution operational analysis to assess the consistency of energy transition pathways. Future research should focus on strengthening the coupling framework through iterative feedbacks, expanding sectoral coverage, and leveraging improved data availability to support more robust and policy-relevant energy system analysis.