The Political Geography of Sanctions Support: Evidence From Kazakhstan

Abstract

Economic sanctions have become an increasingly prominent tool in twenty first-century statecraft. However, it is relatively easy for third-party states to undermine their effectiveness. This vulnerability makes it important to understand how and why their local publics support or oppose sanctions. Drawing from the case of Kazahkstan’s response to the global sanctions regime against Russia, we find that support for the sanctions varies based on ethnicity and geography. Specifically, ethnic Russians view the sanctions far more negatively than ethnic Kazakhs. Surprisingly, however, ethnic Russians located in non-traditional border regions express approval levels on par with ethnic Kazakhs. We argue that this difference stems from economic interest: due to their geographical proximity and informal ties with co-ethnics across the border, this group is well-positioned to benefit economically from sanctions evasion. Income reporting data offer further support for this argument. Our findings suggest that those developing sanctions regimes would benefit from considering how political geography and identity interact to shape support for sanctions—and their efficacy.