Unpacking adaptation lock-ins: Explaining the persistence of the adaptation gap

Abstract

Climate change adaptation is increasingly outpaced by accelerating climate risks, resulting in a persistent and widening adaptation gap. Many current interventions remain incremental and insufficient, failing to address the scale of transformation required. We argue that this shortfall is best understood through the concept of adaptation lock-ins—systemic constraints that both cause and result from maladaptation. These lock-ins generate self-reinforcing dynamics that trap institutions and policy systems in established trajectories, hindering more ambitious and forward-looking action. In this paper, we explore how a deeper understanding of lock-ins can help explain enduring adaptation deficits and structural barriers to sustainable change. We also discuss methodological approaches to identifying lock-in mechanisms and show how such insights can be mobilized to inform deliberate ‘unlocking’ strategies that enable more equitable and transformative adaptation pathways and sustainability transformations.