Sensitivity-guided thermo-hydro-mechanical modeling and operation of a multi-well geothermal system: A case study in the Xiong'an new area, China

IF 6.4 2区工程技术 Q1 THERMODYNAMICS

Case Studies in Thermal Engineering Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-03-07 DOI:10.1016/j.csite.2026.107919

Liyuan Liu , Xuchang Yang , Tao Wang , Pengpeng Ma , Yaohui Li , Shengwen Luo , Le Zhang

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Abstract

Hydrothermal geothermal systems are increasingly deployed as low-carbon sources for district heating, making it essential to assess both their thermal efficiency and long-term geomechanical stability. In this study, we develop a field-scale numerical model of a multi-well hydrothermal heating system in the Xiong'an New Area, China. A coupled three-dimensional thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) model is constructed to simulate 10 years of reservoir operation and to jointly evaluate heat extraction performance and geological stability. Distance-based generalized sensitivity analysis (DGSA) is then applied to systematically identify the parameters that exert the greatest control on thermal behavior and geomechanical response. The simulations indicate that, under the current operating conditions, the reservoir remains geomechanically stable, whereas several production wells face a pronounced risk of thermal breakthrough. Overall, injection rate and injection temperature emerge as the dominant controlling parameters, with rock heat capacity exerting an additional influence on the mechanical response. Guided by these sensitivity results, we design a sensitivity-informed injection–production strategy that mitigates thermal breakthrough and enhances long-term energy extraction. Additional THM simulations confirm the effectiveness of this strategy, underscoring its potential as a practical guideline for the design and operation of multi-well hydrothermal geothermal systems in similar geological settings.

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灵敏度导向多井地热系统热-水-力学建模与运行——以雄安新区为例

热液地热系统越来越多地被用作区域供热的低碳来源，因此评估其热效率和长期地质力学稳定性至关重要。本文建立了雄安新区多井热液采暖系统的现场尺度数值模型。建立了三维热-水-力耦合模型，模拟了水库10年的运行情况，并对储层的抽热性能和地质稳定性进行了综合评价。然后应用基于距离的广义灵敏度分析（DGSA）系统地识别对热行为和地质力学响应发挥最大控制作用的参数。模拟结果表明，在目前的作业条件下，储层的地质力学性能保持稳定，但有几口生产井面临明显的热突破风险。总的来说，注入速度和注入温度是主要的控制参数，岩石热容对力学响应有额外的影响。在这些敏感性结果的指导下，我们设计了一种基于敏感性的注采策略，以减轻热突破并提高长期能源开采。额外的THM模拟证实了该策略的有效性，强调了其作为类似地质环境中多井热液地热系统设计和操作的实用指南的潜力。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Case Studies in Thermal Engineering Chemical Engineering-Fluid Flow and Transfer Processes

CiteScore

8.60

自引率

11.80%

发文量

812

审稿时长

76 days

期刊介绍： Case Studies in Thermal Engineering provides a forum for the rapid publication of short, structured Case Studies in Thermal Engineering and related Short Communications. It provides an essential compendium of case studies for researchers and practitioners in the field of thermal engineering and others who are interested in aspects of thermal engineering cases that could affect other engineering processes. The journal not only publishes new and novel case studies, but also provides a forum for the publication of high quality descriptions of classic thermal engineering problems. The scope of the journal includes case studies of thermal engineering problems in components, devices and systems using existing experimental and numerical techniques in the areas of mechanical, aerospace, chemical, medical, thermal management for electronics, heat exchangers, regeneration, solar thermal energy, thermal storage, building energy conservation, and power generation. Case studies of thermal problems in other areas will also be considered.