Global carbon neutrality progress assessment and typology classification in 2025

Abstract

As the tenth anniversary of the Paris Agreement, global climate governance has shifted from ‘commitment to targets’ to ‘implementation of actions’. Systematic evaluation of national climate progress is essential for achieving the Agreement's targets. This study uses 217 indicators from 198 countries and regions to build a comprehensive assessment framework covering target, policy, action, and effectiveness. The results show that, between 2024 and 2025, the global carbon neutrality process is characterized by steady progress in target and policy, stagnation in action, and limited effectiveness in emission reductions. Progress in target and policy reflects a continued global trend toward green transformation, despite fluctuations in some countries. The lack of visible emission reductions is mainly due to insufficient policy enforcement and delays in technological implementation. Based on target and effectiveness performance, countries are grouped into four groups: Climate Leaders, Low-Key Achievers, Transition Challengers and Emerging Players. In 2025, 92 countries shifted between these groups, showing pronounced dynamics. This study provides insights into the differences and changes in national approaches to climate targets, policy, and technology, contributing to global climate governance.