Widespread loss of ecosystem resilience in response of 1.5 and 2 °C global warming

Abstract

Global changes are reshaping the structure and function of ecosystems, exerting profound impacts on the maintenance and enhancement of terrestrial ecosystem resilience. However, the future dynamics of ecosystem resilience in response to ongoing global warming remain unclear. Here, we investigate changes in terrestrial ecosystem resilience under global warming of 1.5 °C (GW1.5) and 2 °C (GW2) on the basis of leaf area index (LAI) data from CMIP6 simulations. Compared to the historical period (1985–2014), limiting global warming to 1.5 °C instead of 2 °C could reduce the proportion of regions experiencing declines in resilience by approximately 12% (SSP2-4.5) and 15% (SSP5-8.5). Compared with the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the resilience of boreal regions shows an increasing trend at GW1.5 under SSP2-4.5. An additional 0.5 °C of warming is projected to increase ecosystem resilience in tropical regions under SSP2-4.5, while exacerbating declines in the resilience of boreal regions under both scenarios. Long-term trend analysis indicates that 70% (SSP2-4.5) of regions and 79% (SSP5-8.5) will experience shifts from resilience gains to losses by the end of the 21st century, which are likely regulated by CO₂ fertilization effects. Our findings highlight that even a half-degree difference in warming can markedly reshape terrestrial ecosystem resilience by mitigating overall declines and altering regional trajectories, underscoring the necessity of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C.