The cost of inefficiency: A techno-economic assessment of gas flaring in Iraq

Abstract

Routine gas flaring in Iraq represents a significant loss of energy resources and economic value while contributing to environmental degradation and power shortages. This study presents a national-scale techno-economic assessment of gas flaring in Iraq from 2012 to 2024 using satellite-derived data from the World Bank's Global Flaring and Methane Reduction (GFMR) database. Both estimated and potential recovery methods were applied to quantify thermal and electrical energy losses and their corresponding economic impacts. Flared gas volumes were converted to thermal power and potential electricity generation, expressed in megawatts (MW), while flaring rates were reported in million standard cubic feet per day (MMSCFD). Electrical output was evaluated assuming gas-fired power plant efficiencies of 40% and 60%. In addition to full recovery potential, partial gas utilization scenarios (20–80%) were considered to reflect realistic technical and infrastructure constraints, enabling both technical and economic analyses of recoverable energy and revenue. Results indicate that routine flaring corresponds to substantial electricity losses, with medium-sized flares (5–50 MMSCFD) contributing the largest share due to their widespread distribution. The estimated lost generation capacity ranges from approximately 8000 to 10,000 MW, sufficient to significantly mitigate Iraq's chronic electricity deficit. Economic losses were calculated based on flared gas volumes and Henry Hub natural gas prices. On average, these losses amount to USD 1–2 billion per year, with peak losses reaching nearly USD 3.3 billion. The findings highlight medium-scale flares as priority targets for scalable gas recovery and decentralized utilization strategies, demonstrating that even partial utilization can yield considerable energy and economic benefits.