The end of gas

IF 9.3 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Policy Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-25 DOI:10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115166

Aaron Gillich

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Abstract

Every net zero scenario in the UK includes a reduction in gas by 2050, but none include the outright end of gas. Alternatives exist, and yet gas is still referred to as an inevitable and essential part of the UK's energy system through 2050 and beyond. This paper uses the National Grid's Future Energy Scenarios to study how much gas we expect to need in 2050 and how it will be used. It then creates a Zero Gas scenario to test if all gas use within the Holistic Transition pathway could be offset with other technologies. It finds that gas alternatives exist within the FES pathways that could replace both the total demand for gas and the ancillary benefits it provides for the UK energy system. It then explores the practical feasibility and uncertainties of the Zero Gas scenario. Decreasing gas use in a net zero economy reduces dependence on costly and unproven carbon capture technology and has clear benefits for energy security. Significant uncertainties lie in the future of the gas grid itself, with research gaps around the cost and transition pathways for disconnecting and decommissioning the gas pipework. The paper argues that the end of gas is technically feasible and that a lower boundary of zero gas use in 2050 should be more thoroughly modelled and costed in future scenarios.

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天然气的终结

英国的每一个净零排放方案都包括到2050年减少天然气的使用，但没有一个方案包括完全停止使用天然气。替代能源是存在的，但到2050年及以后，天然气仍被认为是英国能源系统不可避免的重要组成部分。本文使用国家电网的未来能源方案来研究我们预计在2050年需要多少天然气以及如何使用天然气。然后，它创建了一个零气体场景，以测试是否可以用其他技术抵消整体过渡路径中的所有气体使用。研究发现，在FES路径中存在天然气替代品，可以取代天然气的总需求和它为英国能源系统提供的辅助效益。然后探讨了零气体情景的实际可行性和不确定性。在净零经济中减少天然气的使用减少了对昂贵且未经证实的碳捕获技术的依赖，对能源安全有明显的好处。重大的不确定性在于天然气管网本身的未来，围绕天然气管道的成本和断开和退役的过渡途径的研究存在空白。论文认为，在技术上，天然气的终结是可行的，2050年零天然气使用的下限应该在未来的情景中进行更彻底的建模和成本计算。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Energy Policy 管理科学-环境科学

CiteScore

17.30

自引率

5.60%

发文量

540

审稿时长

7.9 months

期刊介绍： Energy policy is the manner in which a given entity (often governmental) has decided to address issues of energy development including energy conversion, distribution and use as well as reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in order to contribute to climate change mitigation. The attributes of energy policy may include legislation, international treaties, incentives to investment, guidelines for energy conservation, taxation and other public policy techniques. Energy policy is closely related to climate change policy because totalled worldwide the energy sector emits more greenhouse gas than other sectors.