The sustainability trilemma of land scarcity: Quantifying the societal cost of Taiwan's energy transition

Abstract

Achieving sustainable development goals requires transitioning to renewable energy, but this creates intense competition for land, a critical and finite resource. The effectiveness of climate policies under such constraints remains poorly quantified. Using Taiwan as a case study for a land-constrained economy, we developed a power sector optimization model to analyze this conflict. We find that realistic land-use constraints are sufficient to cause the failure of market-based climate policies, stalling the energy transition even under high carbon prices. Consequently, direct policy mandates to achieve a 36% renewable target, while effective, incur substantial societal costs, increasing system-wide expenses by up to 112%. The model reveals that the least-cost pathway deepens the reliance on imported natural gas for system adequacy, posing a challenge to long-term supply resilience. Our findings reveal the profound economic trade-offs inherent in sustainable development and underscore the necessity of integrating energy policy with national land-use planning.