Inferring trip purposes and demand dynamics in on-demand transit: A heuristic and probabilistic framework

IF 6.3 2区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Transport Policy Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-12 DOI:10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.104065

Aman Agrawal, Sabyasachee Mishra

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

On-demand transit (ODT) offers a flexible public transportation option that ensures mobility in underserved areas. However, the service is prone to failure due to inadequate planning of demand dynamics and market research. This study examines the influence of trip and neighborhood characteristics on ODT demand across various trip purposes, using data from a service provider in Downtown Memphis, Tennessee, USA. A novel heuristic and probabilistic trip inference method classifies ODT trips by purpose, incorporating variable walking radii to identify destination points of interest for trips with walking as the first and last mile. A two-stage nested logit model analyzes home-based (e.g., work, education, shopping) and non-home-based trips, revealing that wait times, trip distance, passenger numbers, and temporal factors like peak hours vary systematically across trip purposes. Neighborhoods with diverse racial groups (other than Black or White) show high ODT adoption, but areas with a high proportion of residents below the poverty line exhibit low usage, raising equity concerns. This research provides valuable insight for transportation planners and policymakers to make informed decisions in designing sustainable and inclusive ODT services.

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按需交通中出行目的和需求动态的推断：一个启发式和概率框架

按需交通（ODT）提供了一种灵活的公共交通选择，确保了服务不足地区的机动性。然而，由于对需求动态和市场研究的规划不足，该服务容易失败。本研究利用美国田纳西州孟菲斯市中心的一家服务提供商的数据，考察了旅行和社区特征对不同旅行目的的ODT需求的影响。一种基于启发式和概率的出行推断方法，根据出行目的对ODT出行进行分类，并结合可变的步行半径来识别以步行为第一英里和最后一英里的出行的兴趣点。一个两阶段嵌套的logit模型分析了基于家庭（如工作、教育、购物）和非基于家庭的旅行，揭示了等待时间、旅行距离、乘客数量和时间因素（如高峰时间）在不同的旅行目的之间有系统的差异。不同种族群体（非黑人或白人）的社区显示出较高的ODT使用率，但在贫困线以下居民比例较高的地区，ODT使用率较低，这引发了对公平的担忧。本研究为交通规划者和政策制定者在设计可持续和包容性的ODT服务时做出明智的决策提供了有价值的见解。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Transport Policy Multiple-

CiteScore

12.10

自引率

10.30%

发文量

282

期刊介绍： Transport Policy is an international journal aimed at bridging the gap between theory and practice in transport. Its subject areas reflect the concerns of policymakers in government, industry, voluntary organisations and the public at large, providing independent, original and rigorous analysis to understand how policy decisions have been taken, monitor their effects, and suggest how they may be improved. The journal treats the transport sector comprehensively, and in the context of other sectors including energy, housing, industry and planning. All modes are covered: land, sea and air; road and rail; public and private; motorised and non-motorised; passenger and freight.