Boom, bust, and Fission: A Deep Dive into Uranium price explosiveness

Abstract

We adopt a data-driven approach to examine uranium price explosiveness. We detect explosive episodes across varying durations and apply a LASSO-Logit framework to uncover key variables associated with price explosiveness. Our findings reveal that uranium price explosiveness is persistent, with positive explosiveness dominating and lasting an average of ten months. Variables such as dividend growth, monetary conditions, and expansion in the uranium sector significantly increase the likelihood of explosiveness. Additionally, uncertainty and geopolitical risks shape market dynamics. A local projections approach highlights that monetary tightening and uranium price momentum can sustain upward price pressures, while economic activity and sovereign debt risks exert downward forces. As uranium becomes increasingly vital to the transition toward a net-zero economy, our findings help bring greater transparency to a traditionally opaque commodity market.