Probabilistic assessment and hydro-thermal coupling simulation of geothermal resources potential for heating/cooling

Abstract

Accurate assessment of geothermal resources potential is of vital importance for promoting the rational development and utilization of geothermal resources. This study aims to systematically explore the collaborative application of various methods for evaluating the potential of geothermal resources, providing more effective evaluation tools for the development of deep geothermal resources. The Xixian Campus of Xi’an Jiaotong University, which is located in the central area of the Guanzhong Basin in Northwest China, is taken as the case study area. The volumetric method and the Monte Carlo method are combined to evaluate the geothermal resource potential for heating/cooling, and hydro-thermal coupling simulation is conducted to investigate the flow field and temperature field responses of geothermal reservoirs under production and reinjection. Results show that the best estimated technical potential of geothermal resources in Xixian Campus is 191.19 × 10¹⁵ J (equivalent to 6.66 million tons of coal equivalent), sufficient to support heating and cooling demands for at least 51 years. The technical potential per unit area is 38.24 × 10¹⁵ J·km⁻². Besides, the technical potential of geothermal resources in the Sanmen Formation, the Zhangjiapo Formation, the Lantian-Bahe Formation, the Gaoling Group, and the Bailuyuan Formation constitute 4.12%, 8.85%, 22.99%, 30.92%, and 33.12% of the total technical potential, respectively. Modeling results indicate that the geothermal reservoirs of the Lantian-Bahe Formation are the most suitable for economic geothermal resource development. The implementation of this work can provide data support for the plans of geothermal resource development and utilization.