Sequential estimation of multivariate factor stochastic volatility models

IF 1.6 4区 数学 Q2 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY
Christian Mücher, Giorgio Calzolari, Roxana Halbleib
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

We provide the first “frequentist” method to estimate the parameters of multivariate stochastic volatility models with latent factor structures to capture the time-varying variance–covariance of financial returns. These models alleviate the standard curse of dimensionality, allowing the number of parameters to increase only linearly with the number of series. Although theoretically very appealing, they have only found limited practical application due to huge computational burdens. Our estimation method is simple in implementation as it consists of two steps: first, we estimate the loadings and the unconditional variances by maximum likelihood, and then, we use the efficient method of moments to estimate the parameters of the stochastic volatility structure with the generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) auxiliary models. In a comprehensive Monte Carlo study, we show the good performance of our method to estimate the parameters of interest accurately. The simulation study and an application to the daily returns on 148 stocks in the cross-sectional dimension provide sound evidence on the computational feasibility of the method proposed and its application.

多因素随机波动模型的序贯估计
我们提供了第一个“频率”方法来估计具有潜在因素结构的多变量随机波动模型的参数,以捕获金融收益的时变方差-协方差。这些模型减轻了标准的维数诅咒,允许参数的数量只随序列的数量线性增加。虽然理论上很有吸引力,但由于巨大的计算负担,它们只找到了有限的实际应用。我们的估计方法实现简单,它由两个步骤组成:首先,我们通过极大似然估计负荷和无条件方差,然后,我们使用有效的矩量方法与广义自回归条件异方差(GARCH)辅助模型估计随机波动结构的参数。在一个全面的蒙特卡罗研究中,我们证明了我们的方法在准确估计感兴趣参数方面的良好性能。对148只股票在横截面上的日收益进行了模拟研究和应用,为该方法的计算可行性及其应用提供了有力的证据。
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来源期刊
Asta-Advances in Statistical Analysis
Asta-Advances in Statistical Analysis 数学-统计学与概率论
CiteScore
2.20
自引率
14.30%
发文量
39
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: AStA - Advances in Statistical Analysis, a journal of the German Statistical Society, is published quarterly and presents original contributions on statistical methods and applications and review articles.
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