A prospective analysis of Nigeria's energy system: Bridging energy poverty and environmental goals

IF 7 2区生物学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ENGINEERING

Biomass & Bioenergy Pub Date : 2026-08-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-26 DOI:10.1016/j.biombioe.2026.109146

Olasunkanmi Opeoluwa Adeoye, Electo Eduardo Silva Lora, Rubenildo Vieira Andrade, Osvaldo Jose Venturini, Leonardo Peña Pupo, René Lesme Jaén

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Abstract

This study examines Nigeria's energy system transformation from 2025 to 2060 using the LEAP (Low Emissions Analysis Platform) model. Unlike many analyses that base projections solely on fixed capacity expansion targets, it integrates both a proposed expansion plan and demand-driven capacity growth to align electricity generation with multi-sector energy use, population growth, and economic development. Three scenarios were evaluated: a Business as Usual (BAU) trajectory, a Gas Transition Economy (GTE), and an Ambitious Green Transition (AGT). The BAU scenario has the highest total emissions by 2060, at 783.4 MtCO₂e, followed by GTE at 766.1 MtCO₂e. In contrast, the AGT scenario, driven by large-scale electrification and renewable energy, presents the most sustainable pathway, reducing total emissions to 493.5 MtCO₂e. Notably, the AGT pathway also delivers the greatest developmental benefits. Despite having the lowest final energy demand (3991.4 PJ), it achieves the highest per capita electricity access, reaching 2.86 kWh/day by 2060. This is a direct result of strategic electrification and efficiency gains that decouple human development from raw energy consumption. A key conclusion of this study is that Nigeria's path to a low-carbon, inclusive future lies in prioritizing strategic electrification and aggressive renewable energy targets, which are proven to reduce emissions while simultaneously improving energy access for its citizens.

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尼日利亚能源系统的前瞻性分析：弥合能源贫困和环境目标

本研究使用LEAP（低排放分析平台）模型考察了尼日利亚从2025年到2060年的能源系统转型。与许多仅基于固定产能扩张目标进行预测的分析不同，它将拟议的扩张计划和需求驱动的产能增长结合起来，使发电与多部门能源使用、人口增长和经济发展保持一致。我们评估了三种情景：“一切照旧”（BAU）轨迹、“天然气转型经济”（GTE）和“雄心勃勃的绿色转型”（AGT）。到2060年，BAU情景的总排放量最高，为7.834亿吨二氧化碳当量，其次是GTE，为7.661亿吨二氧化碳当量。相比之下，由大规模电气化和可再生能源驱动的AGT情景呈现出最可持续的途径，将总排放量减少到4.935亿吨二氧化碳当量。值得注意的是，AGT通路也提供了最大的发育益处。尽管最终能源需求最低（3991.4 PJ），但其人均电力接入最高，到2060年达到2.86千瓦时/天。这是战略电气化和效率提高的直接结果，将人类发展与原始能源消耗脱钩。这项研究的一个关键结论是，尼日利亚通往低碳、包容性未来的道路在于优先考虑战略性电气化和积极的可再生能源目标，这些目标已被证明可以减少排放，同时改善其公民的能源获取。

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来源期刊

Biomass & Bioenergy 工程技术-能源与燃料

CiteScore

11.50

自引率

3.30%

发文量

258

审稿时长

60 days

期刊介绍： Biomass & Bioenergy is an international journal publishing original research papers and short communications, review articles and case studies on biological resources, chemical and biological processes, and biomass products for new renewable sources of energy and materials. The scope of the journal extends to the environmental, management and economic aspects of biomass and bioenergy. Key areas covered by the journal: • Biomass: sources, energy crop production processes, genetic improvements, composition. Please note that research on these biomass subjects must be linked directly to bioenergy generation. • Biological Residues: residues/rests from agricultural production, forestry and plantations (palm, sugar etc), processing industries, and municipal sources (MSW). Papers on the use of biomass residues through innovative processes/technological novelty and/or consideration of feedstock/system sustainability (or unsustainability) are welcomed. However waste treatment processes and pollution control or mitigation which are only tangentially related to bioenergy are not in the scope of the journal, as they are more suited to publications in the environmental arena. Papers that describe conventional waste streams (ie well described in existing literature) that do not empirically address ''new'' added value from the process are not suitable for submission to the journal. • Bioenergy Processes: fermentations, thermochemical conversions, liquid and gaseous fuels, and petrochemical substitutes • Bioenergy Utilization: direct combustion, gasification, electricity production, chemical processes, and by-product remediation • Biomass and the Environment: carbon cycle, the net energy efficiency of bioenergy systems, assessment of sustainability, and biodiversity issues.