Decoding the Temporal Effects of Climate Change on Crop Phenology: Cumulative and Lagged Impacts in China's Major Corn Zones (1990–2020)

Abstract

Understanding how climatic change affects crop phenology is essential for climate adaptation and food security. However, past studies have not effectively separated the influences of anthropogenic management practices (AMP) from climate factors, leaving the actual temporal effects of climate change on crop phenology unclear. This study developed a novel framework that isolates AMP interference and quantifies real temporal effects to address this critical challenge. Focusing on China's major corn zones during 1990–2020, we applied the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter to separate AMP influences and employed gray correlation analysis to quantify both cumulative and lagged temporal effects on two key phenological stages (the three-leaf stage and maturity) of corn. Our results demonstrate that the HP filter effectively isolates AMP effects, revealing that raw data underestimate climate impacts by 25 ± 10%. AMP modulates temporal responses by extending cumulative time by 3–29 days while reducing lagged time by 2–11 days. Lagged effects dominating by 0.06 ± 0.02 compared to cumulative effects nationwide. Spatial analysis further uncovers significant heterogeneity: in the arid northwest, lagged time to temperature and solar radiation exceed cumulative time by 12–18 days, whereas in the northern plains, cumulative time prevails. Notably, the “Qinling-Huaihe Line” emerges as a key demarcation, with northern zones exhibiting longer cumulative and shorter lagged time relative to the south. These findings advance our understanding of climate-induced phenological shifts and offer actionable insights for precision agriculture and global food security.