Global, regional, and national burdens of pancreatitis in adults aged ≥65 years from 1992 to 2021: A trends analysis using data from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study

Abstract

Background

As the global population ages, pancreatitis in older adults has become a public health issue. Nonetheless, detailed information on its global impact and changing patterns is limited. We sought to explore the epidemiological trends of pancreatitis among older adults (aged ≥65 years) from 1992 to 2021.

Methods

Data for pancreatitis incidence and mortality across seven age brackets (65–69, 70–74, 75–79, 80–84, 85–89, 90–94, and ≥95 years) were sourced from the 2021 Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study. The age-standardized incidence and mortality rates for pancreatitis in older adults were calculated using the direct method of age standardization. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to examine the evolution of age-standardized incidence and mortality rates from 1992 to 2021. Age–period–cohort analysis was conducted to determine the distinct impacts of age, period, and birth cohorts. In addition, Nordpred analysis was applied to forecast global epidemiological trends through 2044.

Results

In 2021, the estimated global age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of pancreatitis among older adults were 85.20% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 59.10 to 118.00) per 100,000 population and 7.97% (95% CI: 6.84 to 9.41) per 100,000 population, respectively. The disease burden of incidence and mortality was greatest in Eastern Europe. From 1992 to 2021, both the estimated global age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of pancreatitis among older adults demonstrated significant declining trends. The evolution of trends varied significantly across different regions and 204 countries, with an increased trend of age-standardized incidence rates in the Sociodemographic Index (SDI) regions. The age–period–cohort analysis results showed that the relative risk of incidence and mortality generally exhibited unfavorable trends over time in low-middle and low SDI regions. In addition, the age-standardized incidence and mortality rates were predicted to decrease annually, whereas case numbers of these metrics were predicted to keep increasing until 2044.

Conclusions

There are strong heterogeneities in the incidence and mortality trends of older pancreatitis across the world, including both growing case numbers and distributive disparities, which may be instructive for future explorations in the prevention and treatment of this disease.