Carcinogenic Health Risk Assessment of Benzo[a]Pyrene Bound to PM10 in Adult and Children Population Through Ambient Air in Belgrade City, Serbia.

Abstract

Particulate matter (PM) contains various components, among which heavy metals and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are considered the main toxic component. Serbia, a middle-income country in Southeast Europe, faces PM pollution in several towns. This study aimed to assess the carcinogenic health risk of exposure to B[a]P, a representative PAH, in Belgrade for adults and children during heating and non-heating seasons, using deterministic and probabilistic approaches for the 2018-2022 period. Average PM₁₀ levels ranged between 32.6 and 45.3 μg/m³, and B[a]P levels between 1.4 and 3.7 ng/m³. The PM₁₀ annual limit (40 μg/m³) was exceeded at five of fourteen stations, while the B[a]P annual limit (1 ng/m³) was exceeded at all considered monitoring stations. Risk assessment using both approaches resulted in Total Cancer Risk (TCR) values below the USEPA safe limit (1.0E-04) for both populations and seasons. Deterministic TCR values exceeded the 95th percentile (P95) of the probabilistic risk distribution, which represents the reasonable maximum exposure level according to USEPA. The highest TCR was obtained for adults during the heating season using both deterministic (5.63E-05) and probabilistic approach (1.60E-05, P95). Our results indicate that the probabilistic approach provides a more accurate representation of overall risk, leading to better risk management decisions, while the deterministic approach is more conservative due to reliance on average parameter values. Although the carcinogenic risk of B[a]P in Belgrade was acceptable, other PM compounds and exposure pathways should be considered simultaneously to achieve a more accurate health risk assessment.