Second Attempt at America First: Donald Trump and the Survival of International Organizations

Abstract

The second Trump administration poses an existential challenge to many international organizations (IOs), putting them at risk of no longer being able to perform their core functions. Compared to the first term, the scope of America First is much wider and the speed much faster. Trump no longer sticks to IO rules and is structurally undermining the US domestic agencies that provide input for IOs. At the same time, the academic literature highlights the overwhelming resilience of IOs over the last two centuries, and the demand for IOs to address international problems remains high. The loss of US funding, membership, and input is real, but an equally important question is how IOs themselves and the other members cope with and counter this challenge. Several leaders of IOs have pro-actively stepped up and are strategizing on how to protect their organizations. In light of the imminent budget pressures, many IOs will have to downsize and potentially merge with other international institutions. IOs may thus become less central to the conduct of international relations. Yet, unless the Trump administration, in improbably collective action with China and Russia, manages to overthrow the whole postwar international system, IOs will remain relevant actors.