Food Security Outlook for Eastern Africa by 2050: Climate Change Impacts and Population-Driven Demand Gaps.

Abstract

PURPOSE OF THE REVIEW: This review examines the future of food availability in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Uganda in the context of rapid population growth and accelerating climate change. It aims to assess the implications of projected climate-induced yield declines and demographic trends for food security by 2050, with a focus on cereal demand and supply under IPCC RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. RECENT FINDINGS: Projections indicate that regional temperatures will rise by 1.8–3.0 °C by mid-century, leading to cereal yield reductions ranging from 13% to 22%. Uganda is projected to face the largest yield losses, while Ethiopia is expected to warm most rapidly. Concurrently, population growth will dramatically increase food demand, with Ethiopia, Kenya, and Uganda reaching populations of 230, 93, and 109 million, respectively, by 2050. Cereal requirements will grow to 50.6 million tons for Ethiopia, and 23 million tons each for Kenya and Uganda. Despite modest assumptions of 1.5% annual productivity gains, projected cereal deficits remain high—21% in Ethiopia, 71% in Kenya, and 60% in Uganda. Without urgent and transformative action, the region is likely to face deepening food insecurity, rising malnutrition, and increased dependence on food imports. Strategic investments in climate-resilient agriculture—including drought-tolerant crop varieties, improved water management, early warning systems, and diversified livelihoods—are essential. Coupling these with nutrition-sensitive interventions and regional cooperation can enhance food system resilience and safeguard vulnerable populations against mounting climate and demographic pressures.