Changing landscape of multidimensional poverty among rural left-behind elderly in China: Where and why does it persist?

Abstract

Despite growing academic attention to the challenges encountered by the rural left-behind elderly, systematic research examining the multidimensional nature and spatio-temporal dynamics of their poverty remains limited. This study addresses this gap by systematically measuring, spatially mapping, and analytically explaining multidimensional poverty among the rural left-behind elderly population in China over the period from 2011 to 2020. Utilising nationally representative data from five survey waves (2011–2020) of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (N = 20,527), this study constructed multidimensional poverty indices based on the Alkire-Foster methodology. Subsequently, spatial autocorrelation analysis, binary logistic regression, and spatial regression models were employed to examine temporal trends, spatial clustering patterns, and associated determinants at the individual, family, and regional levels. The results reveal that (1) between 2011 and 2020, multidimensional poverty among the rural left-behind elderly experienced a pronounced decline, primarily driven by substantial reductions in material deprivation. However, reduced intergenerational support linked to adult children's migration contributed to increased non-material deprivation, particularly across dimensions related to life care and social participation. (2) From a spatial perspective, poverty patterns shifted from highly concentrated clusters to increasingly dispersed distributions, with only a limited number of provinces in the central-southern and north-eastern regions exhibiting pronounced poverty by 2020. (3) Multidimensional poverty among the rural left-behind elderly is significantly shaped by individual characteristics (i.e., part-time employment and income, marital status, educational attainment, and gender), family-level factors (e.g., the number of living children and cohabiting family members), and the broader regional context (i.e., temperature, economic development, healthcare provision, and senior care infrastructure). Overall, the findings provide valuable empirical insights to inform poverty alleviation strategies targeting this vulnerable demographic in developing countries.