Why the end-Guadalupian biotic crisis differs from mass extinctions: Insights from high-precision geochronology and carbon cycle modeling

Abstract

Despite extensive release of carbon from eruptive pulses of Emeishan Large Igneous Province (ELIP) volcanism and increased temperatures, associated biotic crisis across the Guadalupian–Lopingian boundary (middle Permian) did not rise to the level of a mass extinction. Here we integrate new high-precision CA-ID-TIMS U-Pb zircon ages from South China, refining the Guadalupian–Lopingian boundary age to 259.857 ± 0.084 Ma (95 % C.I.) with carbon isotope and temperature records as the framework for carbon cycle modeling. We show that the magnitude and rate of carbon release during two warming phases associated with the ELIP eruptive pulses were substantially lower than those that drove Phanerozoic mass extinctions. Our findings provide a new explanation for why the end-Guadalupian biotic crisis did not escalate into a rapid mass extinction. This work suggests a threshold for the carbon injection rates required to generate climatic perturbations of sufficient magnitude and pace to trigger severe environmental stress and advances our understanding of the links between large igneous province volcanism, climate perturbations, and biotic resilience in Earth’s past.