Assessing climate impacts on education: a comparison of four temperature indices in Spain

Abstract

Rising global temperatures are increasingly recognized as a threat to education, affecting students’ cognitive performance, learning environments, and institutional resilience. However, educational data are rarely available in many regions of the world at sufficient spatial and temporal resolution to directly quantify these impacts. This study focuses on the development and comparison of four temperature-based climate indices across Spain—mean daily temperature, maximum daily temperature, number of days above 26.7 °C, and number of days with temperature anomalies above the 95th percentile—and examines how these indices can inform understanding of heat-related risks in education. Each index captures different dimensions of climate hazards, exposure, and vulnerability, providing complementary perspectives on how increasing heat affects educational outcomes. Using ERA5-Land data from 1961 to 2022, linear regression models were applied to assess geographic disparities and climate change trends in the ten most populous Spanish cities. The indices are weighted based on their relevance to educational impacts, including inequality, learning disruptions, and health-related stress. Results reveal regional disparities in both baseline climate conditions and the pace of warming, underscoring that no single metric fully captures the multifaceted nature of heat exposure. While the study does not quantify educational impacts directly, the indices provide a framework for evaluating and comparing climate hazards in education and may also serve as tools to support climate literacy and institutional preparedness.