China and Africa in the green transition: Evidence from wavelet analysis

Abstract

This study analyzes the temporal synchronization and spillover impacts of China's green growth on African Regional Economic Communities (RECs) from 1996 to 2019, emphasizing emissions dynamics and environmental externalities. Two composite indicators are developed: the Stimulating Green Growth Index (SGGI), which measures advancements in energy sustainability, production efficiency, and social inclusion, and the Destimulating Green Growth Index (DGGI), which indicates pollution intensity, resource depletion, and ecological degradation. The indices are generated by a two-stage Principal Component Analysis and examined through the Continuous Wavelet Transform, facilitating the detection of time-frequency-specific synchronization and lead-lag correlations. The results indicate a significant disparity in the transfer of green growth between China and Africa. China's promotion of green growth has weak and sporadic alignment with African trends, demonstrating modest convergence solely following the Paris Agreement. Conversely, China's counterproductive green growth demonstrates robust, enduring, and China-driven synchronization with African regions, signifying considerable transboundary spillovers of environmental costs. Phases of accelerated economic growth in China often align with increasing destimulating pressures in resource-abundant African Regional Economic Communities, indicating emissions externalization via trade and extractive connections. This study documents pre-2020 dynamics to offer a baseline for assessing China's post-2020 dual-carbon promises and their effects on carbon spillovers within China–Africa supply chains.