What theoretical physics can tell us about ecosystem health and why it matters

Abstract

Human wellbeing depends on healthy ecosystems, yet many environmental and public health approaches emphasize damage reduction rather than how ecosystems adapt to variability and disturbance. In this paper, we present an integrated framework for assessing ecosystem health based on three complementary dimensions: ecosystem integrity, criticality, and antifragility. Integrity describes deviations from minimally disturbed reference conditions and provides a spatial diagnosis of ecosystem state. Criticality captures ecosystem dynamics by characterizing the balance between stability and adaptability, while antifragility evaluates whether ecosystems simply resist disturbances or improve their functioning through adaptive responses. Together, these dimensions extend conventional resilience-based assessments and offer a broader perspective on ecosystem health. We discuss the societal relevance of this framework in relation to the Sustainable Development Goals and the concept of a safe operating space for humanity, highlighting links between ecosystem health, public health, inequality, and long-term sustainability. Drawing on empirical work in terrestrial ecosystems and the human gut microbiota, we illustrate how similar systemic principles operate across biological scales. To address emerging risks at the human–environment interface, we introduce the Pandemics Prism as a conceptual tool for understanding how interacting ecological, social, and institutional processes shape pandemic vulnerability and potential pathways for risk reduction.