Evaluating hydrogen technology adoption in Airlines: A game theory approach to achieving carbon neutrality in airlines by 2050

Abstract

This paper examines how hydrogen technologies can be strategically implemented in the air transportation industry to enable the world to meet the goal of carbon neutrality by 2050. Green aviation transition is a crucial avenue for sustainability transformation in the transportation sector, as the aviation sector currently accounts for 2–3 % of global CO₂ emissions and could increase rapidly without technological intervention. Hydrogen-powered aircraft can provide a sustainable aviation solution, with zero direct emissions and energy density benefits over other low-carbon technologies such as battery-electric propulsion, which is still constrained by weight and distances in commercial aviation. Drawing on examples of airlines and airport operators, the study constructs a transport-based analytical framework grounded in cost-benefit analysis (CBA) and evolutionary game theory (EGT) to assess the dynamic decision-making process underlying technology transitions. The Model represents the decision of transport stakeholders to use conventional fuels, such as kerosene (KER), or hydrogen fuels. It starts with a two-player game in which one player is an airport and the other an airline, to analyses the game, and then extends to network-based EGT Model tuned using empirical evidence on short-haul transport routes. The paper assesses three hydrogen integration conditions for hydrogen-powered ground support units and for complete hydrogen-powered aircraft, considering different traffic volumes and turnaround times to represent real transport operations. The results reveal that only fully hydrogen-powered air transport systems can achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, and that such systems would require commercial feasibility by 2030. Intermediate technologies, such as fuel-cell configurations, are less feasible due to higher operational costs and lower energy conversion efficiency. The research analyses policy tools, including subsidies and carbon taxes. It concludes that they are functionally identical in reducing adoption levels and accelerating the dissemination of technology across the transport network. Sensitivity analysis indicates that the significant determinants of adoption success are traffic volume and the carbon price (>€120/tCO₂). High-volume routes achieve full hydrogen adoption 45–60 years sooner than low-volume routes and strategic route prioritization must be central to sustainable aviation transitions. These observations are consistent with the current changing regulatory regime, including the European Union package on Fit 55 and the updated Energy Taxation Directive, which promote the use of cleaner energy in aviation. The study notes the need to focus on specific transport policies, infrastructure incentives, and sustained R&D investment to make a commercially viable hydrogen-powered air transport future a reality.