Modeling the role of environmental and socioeconomic factors in endemic SFTS risk using a multicomponent framework

IF 5.3 2区医学 Q1 INFECTIOUS DISEASES

One Health Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-30 DOI:10.1016/j.onehlt.2026.101344

Wang Yao , Kou Zengqiang , Pang Bo , Tian Xueying , Wen Hongling

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background

Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) is a rapidly emerging tick-borne disease with high mortality. Despite increasing recognition of environmental and socioeconomic drivers, their roles in sustaining local transmission remain poorly differentiated.

Methods

We collected county-level SFTS case data from Shandong Province between 2015 and 2022, along with corresponding socioeconomic and meteorological indicators. A random forest regression (RFE) model was used to quantify the relative importance of environmental and social drivers. Additionally, a spatiotemporal multi-component (STM) model was employed at the county level to characterize transmission heterogeneity and key driving forces.

Results

SFTS incidence exhibited pronounced spatiotemporal heterogeneity, with Jiaodong Peninsula and central Shandong identified as major hotspots. The epidemic component (0.59, 95%CI: 0.50, 0.76) predominated in coastal areas, while the endemic risk was more uniformly distributed (0.03, 95%CI: 0.01, 0.17). Maximum temperature (1.69, 95%CI: 0.10, 3.78) and relative humidity (1.67, 95%CI: 0.90, 2.88) was positively associated with endemic risk, whereas higher population density (−0.72, 95%CI: −0.91, −0.57) and wind speed (−1.19, 95%CI: −1.99, −0.33) were inversely associated. Incorporating these covariates significantly improved model fit and reduced unexplained heterogeneity in endemic risk. Three distinct transmission patterns were identified across high-incidence counties, reflecting dynamic shifts in dominant transmission modes over time.

Conclusions

Environmental and demographic factors jointly influence SFTS transmission in Shandong, with higher maximum temperature promoting its spread, whereas higher population density and stronger wind speed exert inhibitory effects. These findings emphasize the necessity of developing region-specific surveillance and intervention strategies that account for local environmental conditions and transmission patterns to effectively mitigate disease risk.

查看原文本刊更多论文

使用多成分框架对环境和社会经济因素在地方性SFTS风险中的作用进行建模。

背景：发热伴血小板减少综合征（SFTS）是一种迅速出现的高死亡率蜱传疾病。尽管人们越来越认识到环境和社会经济驱动因素，但它们在维持当地传播方面的作用仍然分化不清。方法：收集山东省2015 - 2022年的SFTS病例数据，并结合相应的社会经济和气象指标。随机森林回归（RFE）模型用于量化环境和社会驱动因素的相对重要性。此外，采用时空多分量（STM）模型在县域尺度上对传播异质性和关键驱动力进行了表征。结果：SFTS发病具有明显的时空异质性，以胶东半岛和鲁中地区为主要热点。沿海地区以流行成分（0.59,95%CI: 0.50, 0.76）为主，流行风险分布较为均匀（0.03,95%CI: 0.01, 0.17）。最高温度（1.69,95%CI: 0.10, 3.78）和相对湿度（1.67,95%CI: 0.90, 2.88）与流行风险呈正相关，而较高的人口密度（-0.72,95%CI: -0.91, -0.57）和风速（-1.19,95%CI: -1.99, -0.33）与流行风险呈负相关。纳入这些协变量显著改善了模型拟合，减少了地方性风险中无法解释的异质性。在高发县确定了三种不同的传播模式，反映了主要传播模式随时间的动态变化。结论：环境和人口因素共同影响山东SFTS的传播，较高的最高气温促进了SFTS的传播，而较高的人口密度和较强的风速对其传播有抑制作用。这些发现强调有必要根据当地的环境条件和传播模式制定针对特定区域的监测和干预战略，以有效减轻疾病风险。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

One Health Medicine-Infectious Diseases

CiteScore

8.10

自引率

4.00%

发文量

审稿时长

18 weeks

期刊介绍： One Health - a Gold Open Access journal. The mission of One Health is to provide a platform for rapid communication of high quality scientific knowledge on inter- and intra-species pathogen transmission, bringing together leading experts in virology, bacteriology, parasitology, mycology, vectors and vector-borne diseases, tropical health, veterinary sciences, pathology, immunology, food safety, mathematical modelling, epidemiology, public health research and emergency preparedness. As a Gold Open Access journal, a fee is payable on acceptance of the paper. Please see the Guide for Authors for more information. Submissions to the following categories are welcome: Virology, Bacteriology, Parasitology, Mycology, Vectors and vector-borne diseases, Co-infections and co-morbidities, Disease spatial surveillance, Modelling, Tropical Health, Discovery, Ecosystem Health, Public Health.