Forensic age progression for missing person investigations: A pilot evaluation of recognition accuracy

IF 1.4 4区医学 Q3 MEDICINE, LEGAL

Legal Medicine Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-11 DOI:10.1016/j.legalmed.2026.102808

Laura Donato , Michele Treglia , Rossana Cecchi , Douglas H. Ubelaker , Jessika Camatti , Fiona Gabbert , Margherita Pallocci , Anna Laura Santunione , Luigi T. Marsella

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Forensic age progression is widely used to support long-term missing person investigations by estimating an individual’s potential current appearance. Empirical validation of this technique remains limited, and systematic evaluations of its accuracy are scarce. This pilot study examines the recognizability of age-progressed facial images derived from childhood and adolescent photographs of two adult participants (Subject A and Subject B) attending a scientific congress, aiming to provide preliminary insight into the conditions under which age progression may succeed or fail.

A forensic anthropologist—blinded to the participants’ current appearance—produced age progressions to age 25 following established morphological assessment principles. The resulting images were anonymously displayed during the meeting, where 105 attendees with no specific training in age progression attempted to identify the portrayed individuals among those present.

Recognition performance differed between the two subjects, with 79.1% correct identifications for Subject A and 54.3% for Subject B. Qualitative comparison between the age-progressed and current photographs showed both accurate feature predictions and discrepancies influenced by lighting conditions, facial orientation, and individual morphological variation.

This preliminary investigation highlights the potential value of forensic age progression while emphasizing its challenges. The findings underscore the need for larger, systematically controlled validation studies to improve the reliability and forensic applicability of age progression in missing person cases.

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失踪人员调查的法医年龄进展：识别准确性的试点评估

法医年龄递进法被广泛用于通过估计一个人目前的潜在外貌来支持长期失踪人口调查。该技术的经验验证仍然有限，对其准确性的系统评估很少。本初步研究考察了两名参加科学会议的成年参与者（受试者A和受试者B）的童年和青少年照片中年龄进展的面部图像的可识别性，旨在初步了解年龄进展可能成功或失败的条件。一名法医人类学家——对参与者目前的外貌不知情——根据既定的形态评估原则，得出了年龄进展到25岁。最终得到的图像在会议期间匿名展示，105名没有接受过年龄进展方面的特殊培训的与会者试图在在场的人中识别所描绘的个人。两名受试者的识别表现存在差异，受试者A的正确率为79.1%，受试者b的正确率为54.3%。通过对年龄变化和当前照片的定性比较，可以发现准确的特征预测和受光照条件、面部朝向和个体形态变化影响的差异。这项初步调查强调了法医年龄进展的潜在价值，同时强调了其挑战。研究结果强调需要更大规模的、系统控制的验证研究，以提高失踪人口案件中年龄进展的可靠性和法医适用性。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Legal Medicine Nursing-Issues, Ethics and Legal Aspects

CiteScore

2.80

自引率

6.70%

发文量

119

审稿时长

7.9 weeks

期刊介绍： Legal Medicine provides an international forum for the publication of original articles, reviews and correspondence on subjects that cover practical and theoretical areas of interest relating to the wide range of legal medicine. Subjects covered include forensic pathology, toxicology, odontology, anthropology, criminalistics, immunochemistry, hemogenetics and forensic aspects of biological science with emphasis on DNA analysis and molecular biology. Submissions dealing with medicolegal problems such as malpractice, insurance, child abuse or ethics in medical practice are also acceptable.