Estimates of cancer incidence to 2025 in Italy: Numbers and rates

IF 3 3区医学 Q3 ONCOLOGY

Cancer Epidemiology Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-09 DOI:10.1016/j.canep.2026.102990

Sabrina Fabiano , Viviana Perotti , Paolo Contiero , Andrea Tittarelli , Maria Teresa Pesce , Stefano Guzzinati , Fabrizio Stracci , Diego Serraino , Walter Mazzucco , Luigino Dal Maso

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Objectives

We forecasted the incidence of malignant tumours in Italy in 2025, using the most representative estimates of incidence rates and recent trends in cancer incidence available. A comparison with estimates for 2025 obtained using different assumptions and data sets is also presented.

Methods

34 cancer registries (81 % of the Italian population) were used to estimate incidence rate trends in 2013–2017, by cancer types, sex, and age. The stratified incidence rates were projected until 2025 by applying trends in the same strata, using a linear regression model with the calendar year as an independent variable.

Results

We estimated 362,100 new cancer cases in Italy in 2025 (182,300 in men, 179,800 in women). Prostate is the most frequent cancer site in men (31,200 cases; age-standardised incidence rates-ASR=92.3 per 100,000), followed by lung (27,100, ASR=80.9), bladder, and colon-rectum (23,000 cases each; ASR=69.0). 55,900 women were estimated to be diagnosed with breast cancer (ASR=159.0 per 100,000), 18,900 with colorectal (ASR=47.0) and 16,400 with lung cancers (ASR=41.0).

Conclusions

Our estimates were slightly lower than those based on other assumptions and/or different datasets (i.e., ECIS/GLOBOCAN ones). More effective anti-smoking campaigns are needed to halt the predicted increase in smoking-related cancers among women.

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到2025年意大利癌症发病率的估计：数字和比率。

目的：我们预测2025年意大利恶性肿瘤的发病率，使用最具代表性的发病率估计和癌症发病率的最新趋势。还提出了与使用不同假设和数据集获得的2025年估计数的比较。方法：采用34个癌症登记处（占意大利人口的81% %），按癌症类型、性别和年龄估计2013-2017年的发病率趋势。采用以历年为自变量的线性回归模型，应用同一地层的趋势预测到2025年的分层发病率。结果：我们估计2025年意大利有362100例新发癌症病例（男性182300例，女性179800例）。前列腺是男性中最常见的癌症部位（31,200例，年龄标准化发病率-ASR=92.3 / 100,000），其次是肺癌（27,100例，ASR=80.9），膀胱和结肠直肠（各23,000例，ASR=69.0）。估计有55900名女性被诊断为乳腺癌（ASR=159.0 / 100000）， 18900名女性被诊断为结直肠癌（ASR=47.0）， 16400名女性被诊断为肺癌（ASR=41.0）。结论：我们的估计略低于基于其他假设和/或不同数据集（即ECIS/GLOBOCAN数据集）的估计。需要更有效的反吸烟运动来阻止女性中与吸烟有关的癌症的预期增长。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Cancer Epidemiology 医学-肿瘤学

CiteScore

4.50

自引率

3.80%

发文量

200

审稿时长

39 days

期刊介绍： Cancer Epidemiology is dedicated to increasing understanding about cancer causes, prevention and control. The scope of the journal embraces all aspects of cancer epidemiology including: • Descriptive epidemiology • Studies of risk factors for disease initiation, development and prognosis • Screening and early detection • Prevention and control • Methodological issues The journal publishes original research articles (full length and short reports), systematic reviews and meta-analyses, editorials, commentaries and letters to the editor commenting on previously published research.