Layoffs in automobile manufacturing and mortality among remaining workers.

Abstract

Background: Layoffs may affect the health of those who lose their jobs as well as those who remain employed. Existing studies have found that remaining employed through layoffs is associated with poorer mental health in the short term, but the implications for long-term outcomes such as mortality remain unclear.

Methods: We estimated adjusted HRs for all-cause and cause-specific mortality associated with layoff intensity while employed among white men, non-white men and women in a cohort of 9761 autoworkers who worked at one of three plants in Michigan between the years 1950 and 1980. We defined layoff intensity as the number of layoff months endured while employed divided by duration of employment. We identified layoff months as those in which the percentage of the workforce leaving employment was 1.96 SD above the predicted value from an autoregressive integrated moving average model.

Results: We found statistically significant associations among non-white men but not women or white men. Relative to layoff intensity below the first quartile, the adjusted HR associated with layoff intensity between the first and second quartiles was 1.35 (95% CI 1.05 to 1.74) for all-cause mortality among non-white men. The adjusted HRs associated with layoff intensity between the second and third quartiles were 1.85 (95% CI 1.08 to 3.17) and 2.41 (95% CI 1.00 to 5.84) for death due to all cancers and lung cancer, respectively.

Conclusion: Layoffs endured while employed may lead to early mortality among non-white male employees. Reducing workforce instability may reduce racial disparities in health.