Dietary structure transformation continues to influence the resources utilization of agricultural waste in China

Abstract

Against the backdrop of dual challenges in energy security and low-carbon transition, this study aims to comprehensively investigate the resource utilization potential of agricultural waste biomass (AWB) by proposing a dynamic “Economy-Energy-Environment” assessment framework. Focusing on the transition in Chinese residents' dietary structure, and based on demonstration plant data corresponding to four mainstream bioenergy technologies, this study analyzes the dynamic changes in the bioenergy supply chain under evolving dietary trends. By extending the Bass diffusion model to simulate the penetration effects of bioenergy technologies, the energy supply and emission reduction potential of AWB from 2023 to 2045 are evaluated. The findings reveal that: (1) The power generation cost of demonstration plants exhibits a significant positive correlation with biomass collection radius, but a negative correlation with biomass distribution density. (2) Although no fundamental shift has occurred in Chinese dietary patterns, meat demand (286.8∼304.8 kg per capita) has gradually surpassed that of grain crops (248.7∼250.2 kg per capita), resulting in an approximate 55.3% increase in livestock manure production. This growth leads to a reduction in the power generation cost of livestock manure, with a decrease ranging from –0.021 to –0.039 CNY/kWh. (3) Among the four technologies considered, Heilongjiang, Henan, and Shandong provinces demonstrate outstanding comprehensive performance, each achieving a comprehensive score above 0.7. By 2045, bioenergy deployment could reduce emissions by up to 235.4 × 10⁸ tonnes eq CO₂ while generating 7.7 PWh of electricity. These results underscore the multiple impacts of dietary transition on bioenergy technology deployment and confirm the feasibility and potential benefits of AWB-based resource utilization.